You are currently browsing the monthly archive for September 2015.
Innovator: Visualize! It works!
By Shlomo Maital
What can one learn about innovation from the New York Times Sports section?
Well, it turns out, a great deal. Take for instance Chicago Cubs’ talented pitcher Jake Arrieta. He just won his 20th game, first pitcher in the Major Leagues to do so. And he did so even though the Cubbies, as fans call them, are not THAT strong a team, last I looked they were 7 games behind the leading team and not likely to make the playoffs.
Jake Arrieta practices a powerful technique known as ‘visualization’. Before you tackle a task, start a company, implement an innovation – visualize it. REALLY see it, in every detail. Go through the motions, second by second, picture yourself as, say, Steve Jobs, announcing Macintosh in 1984. (He rehearsed that short talk, in which he introduces the Mac as a person, many many times, with a coach). REALLY see it. Then, when you actually do it, it will be familiar, comfortable, you’ll be at ease, and perform at a very high level, like pitcher Jake Arrieta.
Arrieta has a 20 wins, 6 losses record, with a 1.88 earned run average (fewer than 2 earned runs per game). Here is how he describes his ‘visualization’ technique:
“You don’t think about something for the first time the day you do it. You think about pitching in the playoffs; you think about pitching in the World Series. And if you don’t, you should.” Arrieta pictures himself pitching on game day, the day he is scheduled to pitch, he seems himself pitching against the nine opposing betters, one by one, he strategizes, he throws his sinking slider, his fast ball…. Again and again.
I am trying to apply this. I visualize myself in class, in a lecture hall, and lately, in front of a camera. I picture myself talking. I see my gestures, I see the audience, every detail, the water glass, the lectern…. You know it is working when you have a feeling of ‘déjà vu’, hey I’ve been here, done this, before, on the actual day.
You can ‘visualize’ long range too. Think ahead backward. Picture where you want to be in 10 years. The room, the situation, the people around you, your team, everything. Picture it in detail. Maybe even draw it. Then work backward. What are the many things you need to do to make it happen.
Try it! It works.
Laudato Si: Worth Careful Reading
By Shlomo Maital
“Our common home is like a sister with whom we share our life and a beautiful mother who opens her arms to embrace us. This sister now cries out to us because of the harm we have inflicted on her by our irresponsible use and abuse of the goods with which G-d has endowed her. We have come to see ourselves as lords and masters, entitled to plunder her at will. … This is why the Earth itself, burdened and laid waste, is among the most abandoned and maltreated of our poor…she ‘groans in travail’.
These are the eloquent opening words of Pope Francis’ new encyclical, Laudato Si, “Praise the Lord…”. Yesterday was the Jewish holy day Yom Kippur, Day of Atonement. My sister in law Rabbi Suri led a discussion of Laudato Si, as we read excerpts, and discussed the Jewish and Catholic views on ecology and ethics. I plan to read the entire document. Meanwhile, based on excerpts, I urge you to read it all. Most Papal encyclicals are dense and scholarly. This one is written in Pope Francis style, clear, well-reasoned, with beautiful metaphors and sharp admonishments.
We have indeed laid waste to our earth. The 15th COP Conference of Parties (the UN’s euphemism for impotent political gatherings) will take place in November in Paris. But there is a groundswell that holds out hope. Rather than ineffective top-down political leadership to deal with global warming, we now are seeing increasing bottom-up activism, with each individual everywhere asking, what can I do to use less water, waste less, plunder less, in order to be a moral human being, as Pope Francis counsels? If each of us acted on our beliefs, even in small ways, the aggregate effect would be immense.
Five Life Lessons: Learning Life Forward
By Shlomo Maital
The great Danish philosopher Soren Kirkegaard once defined the tragedy of life: “We live life [looking] forward, we learn life [looking] backward”. My wife and I are visiting York University, in Toronto, Canada. I spoke to a class of young engineers, just beginning their studies, at the invitation of my host, Prof. Andrew Maxwell, who heads the BEST Bergeron Entrepreneurship for Science & Technology program in the Lassonde School of Engineering. I shared with them these 5 life lessons, that I have learned personally:
- Take on BIG challenges: challenge yourself hugely. If you fail, failure is glorious, and you learn a lot, so much that there really is no such thing as failure, when you’re tackling something enormous. If you succeed – well, your life takes on huge meaning.
- Start with WHY! Find something you are deeply passionate about. This will be your rocket fuel. Start with this, and move on from this point. Many of my young students do not yet know what their life passion is, because no-one has asked them, nor have they asked yourself. Use your passion to fuel your rocket – but first, be sure to find such a passion.
- Be like da Vinci: in SOME ways. Leonard da Vinci was immensely creative, he invented the submarine, tank, airplane, parachute, and vastly more things. He drew with left-handed in his notebook, and wrote notes in mirror writing, to keep them secret. So in this – be UNLIKE him. Don’t keep secrets. If you never share your ideas, you’ll never improve or find people to help you implement them.
- Be truly expert in at least one thing, go deeply into it; and learn a little about everything you can, you never know. Steve Jobs studied calligraphy (handwriting) at Reed College. Why? It interested him. Because he did, the Macintosh, when launched, had beautiful fonts. This led to desktop publishing. DT publishing saved the Mac, created a huge market, and it was utterly unintended… simply because Jobs loved beautiful fonts.
- Become very comfortable with being uncomfortable. All great things emerge from people who are uncomfortable about something – they just HATE it, can’t tolerate it, want to CHANGE it. Much of modern life is about becoming, and remaining, comfortable, free of thirst, hunger, pain, boredom, anything uncomfortable. So get uncomfortable about something, and be comfortable with it, because THIS is what will drive you to action.
Green Energy for the Poor: The M-KOPA Kenya Model
By Shlomo Maital
Innovation at its best helps the poor, and uses creativity in its business design, not just in technology. Here is an example, by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Nigerian finance minister and World Bank official, writing in the International New York Times. He recounts the M-KOPA system in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, that brings cheap clean power to families:
“It’s called M-KOPA. The “M” stands for ‘mobile’ and ‘kopa’ means “to borrow”. The company’s customers make an initial deposit, roughly $30, toward a solar panel, a few ceiling lights and charging outlets for cellphones – a system that would cost about $200. Then they pay the balance owed in installments through a widely-used mobile banking service….The solar units are cheaper and cleaner than kerosene, the typical lighting source and once they’re fully paid for after about a year, the electricity is completely free. More than 200,000 homes in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania use M-KOPA’s solar system”.
That to me is a “wow”. The idea should spread to rural India and to rural China, to Myanmar, and throughout Africa. Note how this system combines technology, business innovation (the mobile payment system), and sensitivity to the needs of the poor. Electric power is vital not just for quality of life, but also for education, so that kids can read and do their homework in the evening.
Special congratulations to the M-KOPA innovators! They could be candidates for a Nobel Peace Prize.
ISIL’s Return to Gold: Don’t Sell Them Short!
By Shlomo Maital
From the start, the world has consistently underestimated ISIL. (the “L” stands for “Levant”, or, Mideast). The American-led bombing campaign, for instance. America and its allies have conducted 6,000 sorties in total. (A sortie is a bombing mission by one plane). This is a drop in the bucket. The New York Times points out that Syria, the collapsing non-country does this number of bombing raids on its own civilians every few days.
Now comes the 55-minute video, Return of the Khalifah, a video denouncing the fractional reserve banking system, and advocating (notes The Economist) “the return of the ultimate measure of wealth for the world”: gold. The video shows the new ISIL gold coin.
There is no risk that the gold coin will replace the paper dollar, as the video promises. But the economics in the video are very strong. America HAS over-expanded its dollar money supply, to the detriment of other countries. The gold standard, which lasted for 150 years, was indeed successful in keeping countries from excessive debt and excessive money creation. If the dollar is the world currency, it must be stable — yet the U.S., to spur its own economy, has created massive excessive amounts of them.
The video strays into blind hatred, as usual, noting that “America has been able to avoid hyperinflation and maintain its military hegemony largely thanks to the petrodollar system. Islamic State hopes that with the introduction of what it is calling the dinar, all oil will be paid for with gold instead of being priced in dollars, which would “mark the death of this oppressive banknote” and bring America “to her knees” “. This will not happen. But the fact that oil prices are denominated in dollars, and largely paid for in dollars, has doubtless been a benefit for the U.S., though it is now becoming an energy exporter.
The world today is awash in money, owing to QE (quantitative easing) practiced by the U.S. and European Central Banks. This mountain of money has created the seeds for the next global crisis. Neither the U.S. Fed nor the ECB know how to end QE and begin raising interest rates, without panicking capital markets and crashing in particular the huge bond market. Under a gold standard system, this could not happen.
Let us stop underestimating, scorning, discounting ISIL. Their use of media is highly sophisticated. Their videos are professional. Their military tactics borrow from the tactics used by special forces of the U.S., Australia and Britain. They are not going away. And they do pose a threat. They are the prime cause of the massive wave of humanity now washing up on Europe’s shores. The longer ISIL survives, the harder it will be to eliminate it. It is time to wake up. Their gold coin campaign is just one more reason.
Pile-On Meetings: How to Fight ‘Stovepipes’
By Shlomo Maital
Kathleen Finch is the chief programming officer for several cable TV channels: HGTV (Home & Garden Channel), Food Network and Travel Channel. Her job requires a great deal of creativity, in keeping programming fresh, relevant and lively for viewers.
Interviewed in today’s International New York Times, she reveals some of her methods for maintaining creativity. One of them is called “pile-on meetings”. I believe this is a remedy for stovepipe management – that is, narrowly defined management responsibilities, vertical ones, with very little interaction or overlap for creative ideas. Stovepipes are one of the reasons that big organizations with detailed vertical organizational charts struggle to innovate.
“I have a meeting every few months that I call a pile-on meeting,” she told the NYT. “I bring about 25 people into a room and go over all the different projects that are coming up in the next 6 months and the goal is that everybody piles on with their ideas to make those projects as successful as they can be. The rule walking into the meeting is that you must forget your job title. I don’t want the marketing person just talking about marketing. I want everyone talking about what they would do to make this better. It is amazing what comes out of those meetings!”
Another key insight? “I love when things don’t go right, because it’s a good time to talk about taking smart risks. If everything worked all the time, that would mean we’re not trying anything crazy, and it’s the crazy ideas that end up being the really successful ideas.”
Again, another reason big organizations fail to innovate. Who would attempt anything, in the corporate world, that could well fail?
Innovation: Lessons from Stephen Colbert –
You Can’t Discover the Product Until You’re Making It
By Shlomo Maital
Some readers may recognize Stephen Colbert as the host of the Comedy Central show “The Colbert Report”, which in its last season drew 1.7 million viewers, amusing them with Colbert’s skill at deflating hypocrites and finding enormous irony in our daily political lives. CBS chose him to succeed David Letterman, in its “The Late Show”, which launches soon.
We can learn two major innovation lessons from Colbert and his new venture.
First, Colbert’s persona for his “Colbert Report” show was entirely different from the one that he must embrace for The Late Show. For Comedy Central’s savvy viewers, mostly young, “wonkish” according to the New York Times, he was perfect. Now, for The Late Show, he has to reinvent himself, to become more genial, softer, kinder, gentler, because who wants prickles at 11:35 p.m., when you’re drowsy and just want to relax, chuckle and doze off in front of the TV? Jon Stewart, who until recently hosted The Daily Show, has said, “what made [Colbert’s character] work was the thing that Stephen had to hide – which is his humanity”. Adapting to your clients, when they change, is crucial for any innovator. And above all, it means being highly sensitive and attuned to who they are and what they really want. This is especially hard when the product is the show host himself.
So, that brings us to the second lesson, an important one.
“You can’t discover the product until you’re making it”. Colbert said this. I would turn that saying into a sign and post it on the walls of every startup. Until you make the product, and deliver it to clients, and hear their reaction, you have not yet really discovered the product. Discovery begins not with the idea, but with the first person who actually uses the product.
So how did Colbert test his Late Show formula? He and his team spent the whole summer producing original content, and then uploaded it, even though they did not yet have a TV program to try it on. According to The New York Times, Colbert will have to “take command of his work and assert his tastes confidently and unapologetically” – this, at a time when there is an army of producers, directors, joke writers and CBS executives messing around with The Late Show (a machine that prints money) and giving advice.
So, innovator – discover your product – by making it. It’s so simple. And it’s why many startups fail, when they think they are taking time to perfect their product, without really knowing whether anybody will like it and buy it.
Be like Colbert. Get serious. Get your product out there and see the reaction. Before you do that, you won’t have a clue.
By Shlomo Maital
Remember how an Australian researcher discovered the cause of ulcers – bacteria! He did it by injecting himself with the specific bacteria and causing an ulcer, at a time when the medical establishment pooh-poohed his hypothesis.
Now comes news about a breakthrough in diabetes research. Diabetes is a virtual epidemic, as sugar consumption soars (Americans consume 30 kg. per person annually!), Coca Cola pushes sugary drinks and pays scholars to say the problem is lack of exercise….
Scholars at Israel’s Weizmann Institute, one of the world’s greatest universities, led by Dr. Eran Elyaniv, and publishing their findings in Science, have linked diabetes to the masses of microbes that inhabit our intestines. They found that Type 2 diabetes is directly related to the rate at which our intestinal microbes multiply or fail to.
The research included students of computer science, and used a new technique related to computational biology. The breakthrough shows how modern scientific research requires a portfolio of techniques that link nano, bio, computers, software, electronics, and other fields.
The research team found that changes in the microbes in our stomach and intestines can be directly related to onset of Type 2 diabetes.
This could possibly lead to first, much earlier detection of diabetes, bringing effective treatment; or, possibly, second, a medical cure for it (none exists today), based on medication that influences the development of intestinal microbes.
It has long been known that our wellbeing is influenced strongly by the wellbeing of the massive numbers of microbes that live, multiply and reproduce in our intestines. Now research links this directly with diabetes. Congratulations to the researchers.
End of a Trend?
By Shlomo Maital
Bond. The name’s Bond.
No, not James Bond. Bond bonds, like, 2 per cent U.S. Treasury bonds.
We have seen a two-decade 20-year bull market in bonds. Some investors, like the legendary bond guru Bill Gross, made a fortune on it. But now, some, perhaps like Gross, may have missed the inflection point – the turning point that sees an end to the bond bull market.
What drove the bull market? Falling interest rates, and rising bond prices, as central banks everywhere fought the global stagnation in the wake of the 2007-8 crisis by printing money and slashing interest rates.
The booming Chinese economy, from 2002, created a huge boom in commodities and flooded with cash poorer countries that exported commodities (copper, oil, gas, iron, etc.) with cash. According to Mike Dolan, writing the “Inside the Markets” column in today’s New York Times, that boom led cash-rich countries to invest in low-risk government bonds, issued by the U.S. and other G7 countries. This led to rising bond prices and falling yields. It also led to the boom in the stock market. When you can’t make money on your investments in bonds, because of low yields, well, dump it into stocks.
That trend is over, Dolan notes. The IMF says that the value of foreign currency reserves held by Central Banks rose in just one decade, from $1 trillion to over $8 trillion by mid-2014. That mini-trend is over too. Central Banks of exporting nations are now divesting their dollar holdings and spending them. No longer will they dump the money into U.S. Treasuries. And yields will rise, bond prices will fall.
Central Banks everywhere are under pressure to raise interest rates, especially the U.S. Fed. Fed Chair Janet Yellen so far has delayed, and resisted, but it is inevitable. And markets are already capitalizing, into bond prices, the anticipated rate hike.
Dolan quotes Deutsche Bank: “The peak in bond demand is probably behind us.”
Each of us needs to think about the implications of this inflection point, the shift from Mr. Bond to Mr. Bust. Think about the possible teleology, or chain of events. Higher interest rates mean…. Higher interest and debt-service costs, hurting debt-ridden governments, debt-laden businesses….and individuals?
Lock in your low interest and mortgage rates now, while you can.