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 A Deep Contrite Apology to the people of Greece

By Shlomo  Maital

Greece

      Greece’s new prime minister Alexis Tsipras has been sworn in and vows to lead an anti-austerity coalition.   He could possibly lead Greece out of the euro and back to the drachma.  This would be unspeakably painful for Greece, in the short run, but possibly best in the long run.

      Meanwhile,  we economists all owe Greece an apology. We have caused immense suffering, needlessly, to 11 million innocent Greeks.  According to Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, economists drafted the ‘troika’ agreement in May 2010, under which the IMF, European Central Bank and European Commission lent Greece money, in return for extreme austerity.    Greece had no choice in the matter. 

    This document assumed Greece would suffer only a small contraction in 2011 and by 2012 would be recovering.  Yes, unemployment would rise to 15 per cent (Would Merkel’s Germany ever accept such a scenario??) in 2012, but then it would fall rapidly.  Why?  Because austerity would work quickly, heal Greece’s economy, and restore growth.

    Really?  Did the troika economists ever find a single (just one! One!) example in history where austerity worked? 

    No. There are none.

    Instead, Greece suffered a depression, 28 per cent unemployment,  its young people migrated abroad, learning German for instance, and youth unemployment reached nearly 60 per cent. 

     Greece kept its part of the bargain, slashing public spending by 20 per cent.  But the promised benefits of austerity turned out to be disaster.  That is why Tsipras won the election.  And it is why the euro has dived.  The EU and its economists brought it on themselves. 

      It isn’t complicated at all.  To heal a budget deficit, you need a growing economy, because when the GDP grows, tax revenues grow much faster, 1.5 times faster.  To get a growing economy, you need spending and demand.  If people can’t spend, because they have no jobs and their wages are falling, only the government can take up the slack. But if you slash government budgets, the economy will shrink, not grow, and the debt problem will become even worse.  That is what ‘austerity’ does.   It’s pretty simple.

On behalf of my fellow economists, I would like to apologize to the people of Greece. We screwed up.  And worse of all —  none of those responsible seem willing to admit it. 

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IMF – Oops! We Got It Wrong!

By Shlomo Maital  

IMF

 

 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was invented at Bretton Woods, NH, in July 1944.  It is headquartered in Washington, DC and its task is to bail out companies that get into financial trouble, overspending, overborrowing, etc.   And this happens often.

   The IMF is an exemplary organization. It has among the world’s best economists (its former deputy director was Stan Fisher, formerly head of Israel’s Central Bank, now Vice Chair of the U.S. Fed), and it even has an independent evaluation board that checks whether it has acted correctly.

   Now, this independent board has reported that..the IMF erred.  Ooops.

   Initially, when the global crisis broke out in 2007-8, the IMF recommended that governments support the economy, and indirectly its banks and financial institutions,  by using fiscal policy, i.e. deficit spending.  But then, the IMF switched direction, under pressure perhaps from capital markets, and said that governments should impose AUSTERITY,   cut spending, cut borrowing.

    Bad idea.  The independent IMF board said:  the IMF erred. It recommended austerity too early.  Perhaps, it should not have recommended austerity at all.

    It is sad when the world’s fireman, the world’s Mother Hen telling its chicks what the right thing to do is,  admits it blundered.  And sad when economics makes a mistake that is costly for hundreds of millions of people. 

It will be hard for even a serious body like the IMF to regain its credibility in future.

Blog entries written by Prof. Shlomo Maital

Shlomo Maital
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