You are currently browsing the tag archive for the ‘May’ tag.

When Democracy Breaks: Understanding Brakes-It (Brexit)
By   Shlomo Maital

    Are you puzzled by the Brexit fiasco? As are the Brits themselves – and the rest of the world?

   I spent a year in Manchester, UK, studying economics, many years ago, and came to like and understand the British people. Here is my ‘take’ on Brexit.

   British democracy is built around its Parliament. There are 650 members of Parliament, elected by parliamentary district. There are two main parties: Labor and Conservatives. Liberals were strong for a while, then disappeared – now there is DUP (Northern Ireland) and SNP Scottish Nationalists. So there has been fragmentation, as there is in nearly all democracies, and above all, splits WITHIN the two major parties, Labor and Conservatives.

     I love watching question session in the British Parliament. “The right honorable member from Dipsy-Doopsy has clearly failed to understand the essential elements of this issue”.   Polite debate, sometimes raucous, but real intelligent debate, unlike in many Parliaments, and strongly contrasting with, say, Israel’s Knesset.

     But here is the problem. British democracy is adversarial.   Labor vs. Conservative. Them against us.   Usually this works. People vote, and choose between them decisively.

     Until now.  The governing Conservatives had a bare majority, with the help of DUP — and then basically lost DUP support. So they lack a majority.

     The Brexit referendum was very close, 51% for. The slogan of the “for” was: Take Back Control. That made stopping migrants the key issue. People wanted to stop the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But what about the other stuff that came with leaving the EU?   Northern Ireland-Ireland border? Trade/ auto plants? Investment? Foreign workers? Foreign residents? British living in Spain?

     PM David Cameron, at the time, OK’d the referendum because he was sure it would be defeated. He opposed Brexit. He lost. And the chaos began.  Because Cameron had no plan for leaving the EU.  None.  People voted for leaving, without knowing how it would be done.

     What is needed now is compromise, collaboration. WITHIN the Conservative Party, the two wings – hard Brexit and soft Brexit – have to join together and agree. WITHIN the Labor Party, the two wings, ‘stay’ and ‘leave soft’ , have to agree.

     Finally, at the 12th hour, PM Theresa May has offered to sit down seriously with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn. To bargain.   But in an adversarial system, them against us, and at a time when both of the major parties are internally divided, the chances of an agreement are slim.  The two leaders deeply despise each other. What are the odds they can agree on anything, even the time of day?

     We’ve had a dozen votes or more in Parliament – and not a SINGLE one has generated a majority for anything! Except, perhaps, not leaving without some kind of agreement.

     So the odds now are Britain will crash out of the EU in early May, or before, without any real orderly agreement. It will be less chaotic than many warn, but very very harmful to Britain’s economy and future. Because there is no Parliamentary majority for Anything. 

    And most of all, Britain’s image as a paragon of democracy, a good place to invest, and London above all as the world’s financial capital, all have suffered irreparable damage.

   Democracy is great. Until it breaks. British democracy broke, because an adversarial system seemed unable to adapt to become a collaborative one – let’s get together and solve this. Even when the cost is infinite – collaboration seems well beyond the current Parliament.

   Brexit? Or Breaks-It?   Very sad. And just watch the dictators – Putin, Trump and others – rub their hands in glee as the EU comes apart.

Advertisements

British Elections: The REAL Problem

By Shlomo Maital

The press are moaning about Britain’s “hung” parliament, because Teresa May did not get a majority, leaving Brexit negotiations with the EU in limbo.

   I see a different, much bigger problem. This, I believe, is the first election in which a generational war between the millennials and their parents has broken out.

   According to Bloomberg, the Boomers voted for the Conservatives, and before that, for Brexit. The millennials, first, registered to vote in very very large numbers (which they did NOT do for the Brexit referendum), and then,   voted massively in support of 68 year old Jeremy Corbyn. Their support for Corbyn was exuberant and high-energy.  Many of the young people voted for the first time.

“Brexit, along with spending cuts and paying for pensions, pitted the generations against each other. Young once apathetic Britons rallied behind Corbyn’s leftist battle cry and propelled the anti-May anthem “Liar, Liar” to the top of the pop charts with 2.6 million YouTube views.  “I wanted to see Theresa May get a bit of a kicking,” said George Hames, 20, who voted for Labour in London. “The way Corbyn has been able to paint a contrast between himself and May: He’s given people something to vote for, not just pragmatically, but because they think it can change the world.”

     Why is this a big problem?   In normal times, the older generation, which has wealth and power, acts to create a better world for the younger generation. So both generations have a common interest.

     Today? In many countries, young people no longer believe at all that this is the case.

       Civilized society is based on trust, on faith, on values, and on an orderly transition in which power and wealth are handed from one generation to another.

       In societies where this is not the case — young people may leave (in droves),   or create social unrest and hung parliaments, as in Britain.

       Brexit is a problem. But finding common ground between old and young is a far more pressing problem, and a far tougher one.   Brexit means bargaining with the EU, an external force.     Millenial wars mean finding internal agreement between young and old – and that is far harder.  

       I wish Britain well.   Other countries may soon experience similar Millenial wars.  France, in contrast, may have cracked the problem by electing a 39-year-old inexpericnced President. So far it seems to be working.

 

 

Blog entries written by Prof. Shlomo Maital

Shlomo Maital
August 2019
M T W T F S S
« Jul    
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  

Pages

Archives

Advertisements