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World’s First & Greatest Democracy: R.I.P.

 By Shlomo Maital  

 

   This is a very sad, wrenching eulogy for Britain. The world’s first and greatest democracy is at a dead end.  Rest in Peace.

     I often watch Parliamentary debates on BBC TV, and enjoy the thrust and parry between the Prime Minister and her critics. Democracy at its best.

     This is why I am saddened today, when crackpot Boris Johnson will be chosen Conservative Leader, and automatically Prime Minister – by 1% of the British electorate. The other 99% have no say. Why? That’s how the system was set up. It must be changed.

       Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the EU, come what may, by Oct. 31. This implies a ‘hard Brexit’ (exit without a signed agreed deal). Here is what Bloomberg thinks about this option:

   The U.K.’s planned exit from the European Union may have already pushed the U.K. into a technical recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.   In a gloomy set of new forecasts, Niesr predicted that, even assuming a smooth exit in October, the nation will grow 1% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. There’s an around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already shrinking, the think tank said.

Britain may already be in recession, because of Brexit. Not a great time for a crackpot leader.

     Crackpot? Isn’t that disrespectful, extreme, exaggerated? No.

    Today’s New York Times: “Is Johnson how Britain will end?”

       Tackling Britain’s deep divisions requires depth of character, conviction and principle, none of which its incoming prime minister has ever hinted at possessing….he prizes victory above government –his first ambition as a child was to be ‘world king’ – and his political career has been marked by ferocity of campaigning and indifference in office, both as London mayor and foreign secretary…

     And another NYT article:

     In his pursuit to become prime minister, Mr. Johnson has adapted his old habits – the theatrics, the polysyllabic putdowns, the outlandish plans –for the Brexit era…..his promise to extract Britain from the EU by the end of October has left many Britons worrying he will send the country hurtling toward a potentially calamitous no-deal Brexit.

     While Trump ruins America, now Johnson will ruin Britain. Two of the West’s great economies and democracies, heading down the tubes because of a broken democratic process – Russian interference in the US, and an archaic totalitarian system for choosing the Tory leader in the UK.

       Very sad.

    

 

 

 

 

 

        

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Why Britain (and the World) Deserves Crackpot Boris Johnson, UK’s Next PM

 By   Shlomo Maital  

 

   In a few days, rank-and-file Conservative voters in Britain will choose Boris Johnson as their new leader (and automatically, as Britain’s new Prime Minister), over the solid, stable, experienced Jeremy Hunt.

   Johnson follows in the footsteps of Donald Trump. Trump, once a Democrat, now leads Republicans, with hurtful racist words that fire up his “base”, white males, and sow discord, violence, dissent and hatred. Trump got elected, because — well, here’s my explanation.

     As author Yuval Noah-Harari writes, four ‘global’ ideologies exist: fascism, communism, socialism, liberalism. The first three were tried, disastrously, and mostly failed, except for the social democracy version now prevalent in Scandinavia, which isn’t really socialism (state ownership of property and businesses).

     Liberalism?   The United States built a powerful, beautiful vision of a world driven by liberalism (democratic nations trading openly, based on dynamic competitive economies) at Bretton Woods, NH, on July 2, 1944. That’s 75 years ago.   By exporting, many nations grew wealthy – mainly, in Asia (China, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, India). The US offered a huge market.  

       At the end of World War II, the world was largely destroyed, except for the US, whose economy doubled twice during the war, and whose GDP comprised a startling 75% of world GDP. By opening its market, and building a global trading system, the US helped the rest of the world (Europe, Asia) grow wealthy. And Europe wisely joined once-hostile countries into a powerful open economic bloc, of 28 nations.     This was an enormous success for liberalism.

       But now, 75 years later, it is failing. It is falling apart. Trump’s trade wars are spreading. Japan and Korea are now in a trade war. And there will be others.

       Why?

       Because of us.   Because those who saw what was happening, who knew enough to see it, who saw how many countries and people (nearly all of Africa, the underclass in the US, UK, Europe, and elsewhere) were left behind, how wealth became obscenely concentrated among the 0.001%, how these wealthy people controlled democratic systems with their wealth — those who saw it, simply sat on their hands and elected liberals who did nothing about those left behind.   

         And now – the bill for this neglect has been presented. And it’s huge. The US underclass elects billionaire Trump, who has rewarded fellow millionaires with an obscene tax cut – yet, the underclass still loves him Why? Because he twists the tails of the educated elite, the liberals. And that’s worth everything – because if you are humiliated and downtrodden for 70 years, and you think you have a leader who speaks for you (he doesn’t, really) – that’s worth everything.

         And now, Johnson. He was a left-leaning Mayor of London. Now he’s turned far right, for the Brexit crowd. Why? It’s in his interest. Votes, you know. He was once pro-immigration. Now he attacks Muslims and immigrants. He once strongly supported oil companies. Now he’s an eco-warrior. He beat up his girl friend, police were called – and he refused to explain, not a single word. He says he will take Britain out of the EU, deal or no deal, by October 30 — when a no-deal exit will drive Britain into recession. He wrote a crackpot novel, “Seventy-Two Virgins”, — compare it with John F. Kennedy’s non-fiction book Profiles in Courage.

         Like Trump, Johnson says dumb hateful things – and gets away with it. And by the way – Trump strongly endorses him.

         In the disastrous referendum on Brexit, initiated by the hapless David Cameron (an ego trip, he was sure it would be defeated – and ended up throwing Britain into endless chaos), Johnson supported “leave” using false data and false claims. Totally false. And he got away with it.

     There is an alternative. Wise Jeremy Hunt, Foreign Minister, long-time Health Minister, who ran London’s amazing 2012 Olympics –   perfect for UK PM, but about to lose when rank-and-file Conservatives choose their idol, Boris.

         Johnson once wrote about Churchill:  he became Prime Minister “despite members of the Conservative Party having been conditioned to think of him as an opportunist, a turncoat, a blowhard, an egotist, a rotter, a bounder, a cad and on several well-attested occasions a downright drunk.”

         All of those words, each of them, describes Johnson. And Johnson is no Churchill. Britain will pay heavily during his likely-short tenure.  Britain will get anti-Semite Jeremy Corbyn, in the next election, as their leader, and things will get much worse, if that is possible.

         Good luck, Britain. Bull in the China Shop Boris.   He’s your choice for Prime Minister.

         And we liberals are all to blame. We saw the huge gaps in income and wealth emerging, within countries and between countries – and ignored them.

         Now, with Trump, Johnson, and others – we are paying for it. In spades.

         Ouch.

        

British Elections: The REAL Problem

By Shlomo Maital

The press are moaning about Britain’s “hung” parliament, because Teresa May did not get a majority, leaving Brexit negotiations with the EU in limbo.

   I see a different, much bigger problem. This, I believe, is the first election in which a generational war between the millennials and their parents has broken out.

   According to Bloomberg, the Boomers voted for the Conservatives, and before that, for Brexit. The millennials, first, registered to vote in very very large numbers (which they did NOT do for the Brexit referendum), and then,   voted massively in support of 68 year old Jeremy Corbyn. Their support for Corbyn was exuberant and high-energy.  Many of the young people voted for the first time.

“Brexit, along with spending cuts and paying for pensions, pitted the generations against each other. Young once apathetic Britons rallied behind Corbyn’s leftist battle cry and propelled the anti-May anthem “Liar, Liar” to the top of the pop charts with 2.6 million YouTube views.  “I wanted to see Theresa May get a bit of a kicking,” said George Hames, 20, who voted for Labour in London. “The way Corbyn has been able to paint a contrast between himself and May: He’s given people something to vote for, not just pragmatically, but because they think it can change the world.”

     Why is this a big problem?   In normal times, the older generation, which has wealth and power, acts to create a better world for the younger generation. So both generations have a common interest.

     Today? In many countries, young people no longer believe at all that this is the case.

       Civilized society is based on trust, on faith, on values, and on an orderly transition in which power and wealth are handed from one generation to another.

       In societies where this is not the case — young people may leave (in droves),   or create social unrest and hung parliaments, as in Britain.

       Brexit is a problem. But finding common ground between old and young is a far more pressing problem, and a far tougher one.   Brexit means bargaining with the EU, an external force.     Millenial wars mean finding internal agreement between young and old – and that is far harder.  

       I wish Britain well.   Other countries may soon experience similar Millenial wars.  France, in contrast, may have cracked the problem by electing a 39-year-old inexpericnced President. So far it seems to be working.

 

 

History Repeats Itself: Europe & the Extreme Right

By Shlomo  Maital

 Farage Nigel Farage, UK

 History DOES repeat itself.

  After WWI (whose centenary,  1914-2014, will soon be observed), the victors (Britain, France)  punished the losers (Germany) with outrageous demands for ‘reparations’, at the Treaty of Versailles.   J.M. Keynes was there; he warned, in a book The Economic Consequences of the Peace,  that the ruinous reparations would lead to a new war.  It did.  To pay the reparations, Germany simply printed marks. This destroyed the economy through ruinous hyperinflation, and led to the rise of the Nazis and Hitler. 

Today, Europe has adopted a misguided policy of austerity, forcing Greece, Spain, Ireland, and to some degree Italy, to adopt stringent spending cuts and tax hikes.  True, these countries overspent.  But the right way to emerge from excessive public debt is to grow the economy so the debt shrinks and so tax revenues help pay for it.  The wrong way is austerity – shrinking government demand, when consumption and investment and exports are all declining.  You cannot grow an economy by shrinking demand.  Yet many economists support ruinous austerity.   Did we forget what Depression did to Germany?  Well, it is doing similar bad things to Greece, Spain and other countries. 

   Now, it is time to pay the Piper.  The European Parliament elections have brought a huge victory for parties on the extreme right – Euroskeptics, neo-Nazi, anti-immigrant, and anti-Semitic.  It was inevitable.  When times are bad, people look to those who have simple remedies – blame the foreigners, the Jewish people, and Brussels.   

    I’m embarrassed and ashamed to admit I am an economist.  Not only do we economists fail to grasp reality, we have also forgotten history, and the warnings of the man who invented macroeconomics, J.M. Keynes.    

   If the neo-Nazis have risen in Europe, we have nobody to blame but ourselves.  

Blog entries written by Prof. Shlomo Maital

Shlomo Maital
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